Being in the midst of the change, few can see any appropriate underlying models for functioning under the new paradigm. Many recent publications point to what some of the new rules are, but few attempt to explain why these rules should apply. In Leadership and the New Science, Margaret Wheatley explores the emerging models offered by modern science that can be applied to many of the changes now being observed. The purpose is not to force an alignment between business and science, rather to allow the models of science to help anticipate actions in the real world that will be helpful while all the rules-of-the-game become clear. Wheatley has interpreted her task as "presenting material to provoke and engage," [pg. 7] knowing that each reader will evoke different ideas and actions based on the models presented.

Wheatley covers a broad array of scientific topics, starting with a discussion of the weakness of basing organizational ideas on outmoded models of reductionism and simple cause-and-effect. "We need to stop seeking after the universe of the seventeenth century and begin to explore what has become known to us in the twentieth century." [6] Leadership and the New Science draws from quantum mechanics and cosmology in physics, self-organizing systems in chemistry and biology, and chaos theory and fractals in mathematics. In these diverse new sciences "the underlying currents are a movement toward holism, toward understanding the system as a system and giving primary value to the relationships that exist among seemingly discrete parts." [9]

Wheatley's interest in these topics is not simply academic. By giving the quality professional new perspectives on natural organizations, Leadership and the New Science, can provide tools that will allow us to rethink our efforts to affect the structure and processes of our organizations. These scientific models are useful to the extent that they conjure up ideas that can be tested and applied in real organizations.

Chaos theory is an example of a science that has exploded on the scene very recently. Few science or math books written in the past five years, and none that were written more than ten years ago, even mention the topic. The earliest business applications of chaos theory were in economics, particularly the stock market in the late-80's. More recently, chaos theory has begun to be used as a tool in organizational and human resource management.

Describing the variability and randomness of non-linear systems, Wheatley illustrates how chaos theory can be used to understand many of the issues seen in organizational development, explain many past failures to effectively change organizations, and imply areas for further research and action. "Until recently, we discounted the effects of non-linearity, even though it abounds in life. We had been trained to believe that small differences averaged out, that slight variances converged toward a point, and that approximations would give us a fairly accurate picture of what could happen. But chaos theory ended all that. In a dynamic, changing system, the slightest variation can have explosive results." [125-126, author's emphasis]

Side-by-side with chaos theory, mathematicians discuss fractals; those colorful self-similar shapes often associated with computer graphics. The root of fractal geometry is the study of fractional dimensions (e.g. an infinite length line drawn in a finite space is more than a one-dimensional line, and less than a two-dimensional plane).

Example: What is the length of the coastline of Great Britain? The answer varies based on the length of the measuring device used. An automobile wandering the coastal highways while keeping the coastline in sight will arrive at a different answer than the hiker who walks keeping the coastline within a few paces. The hiker determines that the coastline is quite a bit longer than the driver. A dog walking along the edge of the water would measure a longer distance still. To the ant, the coastline is many orders-of-magnitude longer than for the driver. The more granular the measuring device, the longer the result achieved. At the microscopic level, the coastline approaches an infinite length. It becomes the infinite line in finite space: a fractal.

The idea of self-similarity in fractals comes from the fact that the driver, hiker, dog, and ant would observe very similar geometry. Series of relatively straight stretches would be punctuated by rough edged dips and curves, often folding back on themselves. This geometry would remain consistent whether the point of view was the driver (a very large scale view) or the ant (a very small scale view). Self-similarity in fractals raises questions about what can and can't be objectively measured.

Quality professionals spend a great deal of time talking about measurement and the ability (or inability) of IT projects to estimate times effectively. "In organizations, we are very good at measuring activity. In fact, that is primarily what we do. Fractals suggest the futility of searching for ever finer measures of discrete parts of the system." [129] How long is a project? Even for projects already completed, the answer varies based on the granularity of the calendars and clocks used.

A project estimate in months will always differ from one attempted in days, which will always differ from one attempted in hours. Is it correct to assume that each of these estimates is getting more accurate? Regardless of the level of granularity in the estimate, each will include starts and stops, interruptions, and side-tracked activities; they're self-similar. "There is never a satisfying end to this reductionist search, never an end point where we know everything about even one part of the system. When we study the individual parts or try to understand the system through its quantities, we get lost in a world we can never fully measure nor appreciate." [129]

Chaos theory looks at entire systems, not individual components whose individual roles aren't necessarily understood. It asks for the underlying order that remains hidden among the visible self-similar chaotic results. In business "we have started edging toward an answer to this question in our growing focus on studying organizations as whole systems rather than our old focus on discrete tasks." [129]

Wheatley is hopeful because "some of the analytic tools introduced in corporate quality programs, although relying initially on diverse and minute mathematical information, eventually prove effective because they allow people to appreciate the complex and ever-changing shape of the organization, and how multiple forces work together to form it." [130]

Leadership and the New Science prescribes a significant role for chaos theory and fractals in organizational management. "The very best organizations have a fractal quality to them. ... There is consistency and predictability to the quality of behavior. No matter where we look in these organizations, self-similarity is found in its people, in spite of the complex range of roles and levels." [132] Wheatley attributes much of these results to the presence of a clear vision within the organization.

"These ideas speak with simple clarity to issues of effective leadership. They bring us back to the importance of simple governing principles: guiding visions, strong values, organizational beliefs - the few simple rules individuals can use to shape their own behavior." [133] In the terminology of chaos theory, vision and mission are the strange attractor for organizations that are otherwise in a constant state of chaos.

A strange attractor is the pattern of underlying order to be found in a chaotic system. The term "strange" is as opposed to simpler attractors such as the point at which a pendulum comes to rest, or the elliptical orbit of a planet. The graphical pattern that emerges from Dr. Deming's famous "funnel demonstration" is an example of a strange attractor showing that each observation, while apparently random, is bound by some yet-to-be-understood set of constraints.

A clearly formed and communicated vision and mission form the strange attractor for an organization in chaos. "Fluctuations, randomness, and unpredictability at the local level, in the presence of guiding or self-referential principles, cohere over time into definite and predictable form." [133] Chaos theory tells us that, given a chance, just a few underlying concepts or themes (i.e. Deming's profound knowledge) can be used to explain the wide variety of chaotic results often perceived in organizations.

"If we can trust the workings of chaos, we will see that the dominant shape of our organizations can be maintained if we retain clarity about the purpose and direction of the organization. If we succeed in maintaining focus, rather than hands-on control, we also create the flexibility and responsiveness that every organization craves. What leaders are called upon to do in a chaotic world is to shape their organizations through concepts, not through elaborate rules or structures." [133] Leadership and the New Science offers guidance for managers and quality professionals who hope to influence their own organizations.